Shaping the next one hundred years new methods for quantitative, long-term policy analysis and bibliography
The checkered history of predicting the future-e.g., "Man will never fly"--Has dissuaded policymakers from considering the long-term effects of decisions. New analytic methods, enabled by modern computers, transform our ability to reason about the future. The authors here demonstrate a quantitative approach to long-term policy analysis (LTPA). Robust methods enable decisionmakers to examine a vast range of futures and design adaptive strategies to be robust across them. Using sustainable development as an example, the authors discuss how these methods apply to LTPA and a wide range of decis
1 Online-Ressource (xxi, 187 pages)
9780833034854, 9780833032751, 0833034855, 0833032755
956704812
"MR-1626
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