Value-Focused Thinking: A Path to Creative Decisionmaking

Front Cover
Harvard University Press, 1996 - Business & Economics - 416 pages

The standard way of thinking about decisions is backwards, says Ralph Keeney: people focus first on identifying alternatives rather than on articulating values. A problem arises and people react, placing the emphasis on mechanics and fixed choices instead of on the objectives that give decisionmaking its meaning. In this book, Keeney shows how recognizing and articulating fundamental values can lead to the identification of decision opportunities and the creation of better alternatives. The intent is to be proactive and to select more attractive decisions to ponder before attempting any solutions.

Keeney describes specific procedures for articulating values by identifying and structuring objectives qualitatively, and he shows how to apply these procedures in various cases. He then explains how to quantify objectives using simple models of values. Such value analysis, Keeney demonstrates, can yield a full range of alternatives, thus converting decision problems into opportunities. This approach can be used to uncover hidden objectives, to direct the collection of information, to improve communication, to facilitate collective decisionmaking, and to guide strategic thinking. To illustrate these uses, Keeney shows how value-focused thinking works in many business contexts, such as designing an integrated circuit tester and managing a multibillion-dollar utility company; in government contexts, such as planning future NASA space missions and deciding how to transport nuclear waste to storage sites; and in personal contexts, such as choosing career moves and making wise health and safety decisions.

An incisive, applicable contribution to the art and science of decisionmaking, Value-Focused Thinking will be extremely useful to anyone from consultants and managers to systems analysts and students.

 

Contents

Thinking about Values
3
11 ValueFocused Thinking
4
12 Creating Alternatives
9
13 Identifying Decision Opportunities
16
14 Thinking about Values
22
15 The Uses of ValueFocused Thinking
23
The Framework of ValueFocused Thinking
29
21 Framing a Decision Situation
30
77 Coordinated Alternatives
216
78 Process Alternatives
218
79 Removing Constraints
220
710 Better Utilization of Resources
222
711 Screening to Identify Good Alternatives
224
712 Alternatives for a Series of Similar Decisions
225
Creating Alternatives for Multiple Decisionmakers
226
81 Pleasing Other Stakeholders
227

22 Fundamental Objectives
33
23 The Decision Context
35
24 Guiding Strategic Thinking and Action
40
25 The Framework
44
26 Comparing AlternativeFocused and ValueFocused Thinking
47
27 Ethics and Value Neutrality
51
FOUNDATIONS
53
Identifying and Structuring Objectives
55
32 Identifying Fundamental Objectives
65
33 Structures of Objectives
69
34 How to Structure Objectives
77
35 Desirable Properties of Fundamental Objectives
82
36 Relating Objectives Hierarchies and Objectives Networks
87
37 Incomplete Objectives Hierarchies and Networks
92
38 Objectives Hierarchies for Groups
95
Measuring the Achievement of Objectives
99
41 The Concept of an Attribute
100
42 The Types of Attributes
101
43 Developing Constructed Attributes
103
44 Use of Proxy Attributes
110
45 Desirable Properties of Attributes
112
46 The Decision of Selecting Attributes
118
47 Connecting Decision Situations with Attributes
121
Quantifying Objectives with a Value Model
129
51 Building a Value Model
130
52 MultipleObjective Value Models
132
53 SingleObjective Value Models
141
54 Prioritizing Objectives
147
55 The Art of Assessing Value Models
149
56 Issues to Consider in Value Assessments
152
USES
155
Uncovering Hidden Objectives
157
61 Insights from Attributes
159
62 Insights from Violations of Independence Assumptions
165
63 Insights from Value Tradeoffs
178
64 Insights from SingleAttribute Objective Functions
182
65 Insights from Multiple Value Assessments
194
Creating Alternatives for a Single Decisionmaker
198
71 Counteracting Cognitive Biases
199
72 Use of Objectives
201
73 Use of Strategic Objectives
207
74 Focus on HighValue Alternatives
209
75 Use of Evaluated Alternatives
211
76 Generic Alternatives
213
82 Stakeholder Influence on Your Consequences
230
83 Clarifying Stakeholder Values for Group Decisions
233
84 Creating Alternatives for Negotiations
237
Identifying Decision Opportunities
241
91 Use of Strategic Objectives
242
92 Use of Resources Available
246
93 A Broader Decision Context
249
94 Monitoring Achievement
250
95 Establishing a Process
255
96 Negotiating for Your Side and for the Other Side
256
97 Being in the Right Place at the Right Time
262
98 When You Have No Idea about What to Do
265
Insights for the Decisionmaking Process
268
101 Guiding Information Collection
270
102 Evaluating Alternatives
273
103 Interconnecting Decisions
275
104 Improving Communication
278
105 Facilitating Involvement in MultipleStakeholder Decisions
281
106 Guiding Strategic Thinking
284
APPLICATIONS
287
Selected Applications
289
112 Transporting Nuclear Waste
295
113 Research on Climate Change
307
114 Air Pollution in Los Angeles
317
115 Design of Integrated Circuit Testers
325
116 Collaborating on a Book
334
ValueFocused Thinking at British Columbia Hydro
342
121 Identification and Structuring of the Strategic Objectives
344
122 First Revision of the Strategic Objectives and the Preliminary Attributes
350
123 Current Version of the Strategic Objectives and Attributes
353
124 The Quantitative Value Assessment
358
125 Insights from the Value Assessment
366
126 Decision Opportunities
368
ValueFocused Thinking for My Decisions
372
132 Guiding Involvement in Professional Activities
377
133 Decisions about Health and Safety
381
134 Professional Decisions
384
135 Personal Decisions
391
136 ValueFocused Thinking and You
399
References
403
Index of Applications and Examples
410
General Index
412
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About the author (1996)

Ralph L. Keeney is Professor Emeritus of Information and Operations Management, Marshall School of Business, and of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Viterbi School of Engineering, at the University of Southern California. He is coauthor (with Howard Raiffa) of Decisions with Multiple Objectives, which was awarded the Lanchester Prize of the Operations Research Society of America.

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